The confidence for a winter storm impacting the area continues to increase. Here is all the details...
First, lets look at the current model guidance shows.
The GFS model
Since yesterday, the GFS model has not budged at all. It continues to show the warmest solution compared to other model solutions. While the GFS model is an outlier, this scenario cannot be counted out. Pictured below is the GFS model snowfall forecast.
The ECMWF model
The ECMWF model continues to be the coldest solution and has been since yesterday. This solution brings an all-snow event to the entire state. Some areas even cash in the heavier snowfall rates. This solution, also, cannot be 100% ruled out just yet. Pictured below is the ECMWF model snowfall forecast.
As you can see, there is still a big difference between the GFS & ECMWF. This difference is significant, as one scenario brings in a major snowstorm to the entire state while the other only brings in major accumulations to a few counties.
As of right now, I will not be posting any snowfall forecasts just yet. I will wait another day or so before we get better model agreement.
Timing
Snow will begin to move into western Pennsylvania as soon as Sunday morning. The snow will begin to spread across the state as we head later into Sunday. Snow will continue through Monday across the majority of the state. The snow will begin to taper off sometime late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Some areas could see 48 hours worth of snowfall.
Winter Storm Probability Index
Low (yellow) - There is a low (10-20%) chance of seeing winter storm impacts in this area. Some accumulating snow, ice, and/or sleet is possible. Check back for any updates.
Medium (orange) - There is a medium (30-50%) chance of seeing winter storm impacts in this area. The threat for significant snowfall and/or icing is possible in this area. Significant snowfall refers to 6 inches of snow or more in a 12 hour period or 8 inches of snow in a 24 hour period. Check back for any updates.
High (red) - There is a high (50-70%) chance of seeing winter storm impacts in this area. The threat for significant snowfall and/or icing is possible in this area. Significant snowfall refers to 6 inches of snow or more in a 12 hour period or 8 inches of snow in a 24 hour period. Check back for any updates.
The best thing you can do now is just stay tuned for updates. Make sure to follow me on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter for the latest updates!
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