A major winter storm is expected to bring accumulating snow, sleet, freezing rain, and even plain rain across the state between Monday and Tuesday. I will break it all down in this blog post. Read below!
First Round - Monday morning/early afternoon
Here is the simulated radar between 4am and 1pm Monday. As you can see, the first round of this event will be majorly a snow event, with light freezing rain and sleet in southern Pennsylvania. SLICK ROADS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY MORNING. Prepare for snow-covered roads in the morning. School closures and delays are possible due to the timing of this first wave.
Here is roughly how much snow you should expect just out of the first round. A general 1 to 3 inches of snow is expected right in time for the morning commute. Western Pennsylvania will see the heaviest snowfall rates, where up to 3 inches of snow is more likely.
Second round (main round) - Monday evening through Tuesday morning
Here is the simulated radar between 4pm Monday and 7am Tuesday. As you can see, this will be the main portion of the event. Precipitation will fill in the state Monday evening and continue to spread later into the night. Due to the northerly track of this system, warm air will flood into the region, changing snow to freezing rain (purple) and sleet (light pink). Some areas change over to plain rain (green). Areas that see prolonged hours of freezing rain will be dealing with significant ice accretion. This will lead to impossible driving conditions, power outages, and tree damage. Areas that stay an all-snow event will be dealing with significant snow accumulations.
Here is what I am currently thinking snowfall-wise. The heaviest snow accumulations will remain to the northwest portions of Pennsylvania, where over 8 inches of snow is still expected. Lower amounts to the south & east, due to mixing concerns. This includes the first wave AND second wave combined.
Here is what I am currently thinking for ice accretion amounts. A swath of freezing rain is expected across the majority of the state. The heaviest ice accretion amounts will occur in the highest elevations. After all, any amount of ice (even a trace) could lead to dangerous travel conditions. If you can, avoid unnecessary travel between Monday evening and Tuesday morning. Power outages and tree damage is possible due to the expected icing.
Is the track set in stone yet? No. As you can see what happened in the last 24 hours, there was a significant shift to the northwest. With the majority of the storm still roughly 30-40 hours out, changes could still occur. Will it continue to trend further northwest or will it trend back southeast? I still have no clue. However, I am keeping my fingers crossed no more significant shifts occur to the point where I would have to make major changes to the ice and snowfall forecast.
**IF** changes do occur, I will have an updated snowfall map and ice accretion map around 10pm Sunday evening.
As always, remember to follow Weatherx17 on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram for the latest updates. By the way, there is another significant winter storm threat for Wednesday night through Friday morning. Stay tuned!
Comments